Libya's Next Challenge (America's Next Step)

This is not good. I'm officially what President Barack Obama would call a "cynic." I discovered this yesterday as my twitter feed and news alerts started going off about how Libyan rebels had taken Tripoli and the rule of Qaddafi had effectively ended. The news started coming in and I just kept waiting for two things to happen.

First, when will it be that the major news networks start playing up the possibility that Libya becomes a "terrorist safe haven" and an "Islamic state." We all know this is inevitable, and that any support given now for Libya's overthrow of Qaddafi will soon be replaced with the jingoist paradigm that has so defined the last two decades. What is happening now is the typical jubilation that goes with any instance in which Western involvement is seen as having a positive, democratizing effect somewhere else in the world. What will happen soon is the typical "they don't know how to really have democracy" trope as fear begins to creep into the discussion surrounding Libya.

Second, I'm waiting for the United States to engage in usual, interest protecting, covert operations. These are not new, and they have defined the behavior of the executive branch since the 1950's, at the very least. How long will it be before CIA operations focus on forming a stabilized government friendly to American interests. This is not some outlandish, conspiratorial thought process; its a logical extension of American history in foreign intervention.

Of course, I hope that this time will be different. The idealist in me really wants the new Libya to be treated with mutual respect and welcomed into the international community on fair and open terms. But it's incredibly difficult for me to entertain these hopes seriously. Such was not the case with Afghanistan or Iraq, nor has the Egyptian government in the post Mubarak era been treated as a nation in charge of its own destiny. Egypt is perhaps the best example of how things can go so wrong because American media sources have continued to play up the threat of the Muslim Brotherhood and the rise of an Islamic state. These speculative news stories play directly into the xenophobic fears of many people who watch these cable news networks and they thus raise support for international intervention. Or, at least, it creates a de facto justification for when the intervention comes to light.

I'm not trying to take this into Manufacturing Consent territory, I'm just trying to express how my cynicism tempers my hope for the future of international events. The United States has a long rap sheet of foreign intervention and a bad history with countries in the Magreb and throughout the Middle East. So when I hear that Tripoli has been freed from Qaddafi's rule, I cannot help but hold my breath for the other shoe to drop. The loud, cable TV shoe.

As events unfold in Libya, I also wait to see events unfold within the American discourse around Libya. It will tell us a great deal about the future of American relations with the Middle East beyond simply what policies the current administration chooses to pursue. It will also be important to pay attention to exactly what kind of rhetoric the new Libyan government takes up in lieu of NATO involvement in the struggle against Libya's dictator. Those developments will be instructive of how deep the scars are from the post-colonial era.